Guggenheim Partners' chief investment officer forecast on Monday that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates roughly every quarter in 2025, bringing the reduction to around 75 basis points or even a full percentage point this year.

The Federal Reserve will hold its first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 28 and 29, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates right where they are after cutting three times since September.

As mentioned, mortgage rates haven't fallen in line with the Fed's rate cuts because they depend on factors beyond the agency's benchmark rate, such as the economy and 10-year Treasury bond yields. For example, when the 10-year treasury rate goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice-versa.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has recently soared toward its highest level since 2023, injecting nervousness into the U.S. stock market that’s knocked indexes from their records

It is highly unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates on January 29. However, a cut in March or May could be possible.

Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to deliver just one more quarter-point interest-rate cut this year, but there’s a little less certainty than before. There is a 34% chance that the Fed’s key rate finished the year at 4%-4.