With Arkansas mired in the muck of a 1-6 start to SEC play, first-year coach John Calipari sent out a motivational text to his team with a message of inspiration that could essentially be boiled down to this: If you're going to have success,

FOX Sports college basketball bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy offers up his latest NCAA Tournament projections with Houston and St. John's both making big jumps!

Teams with Lock status have at least a 95% chance to make the tournament, according to the BPI forecast. (Yes, this means that 5% of the time, a team marked as a lock will miss the tourney. We set the threshold there as a nod to the traditional standard for significance testing.)